Russia is preparing a covert strategy to trigger energy shortages in Europe and force the EU to ease sanctions, a source in Ukraine’s military intelligence service (HUR) told Kyiv Post on Thursday.
The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, alleges that the Kremlin has developed a comprehensive plan to re-enter the European energy market, involving officials across multiple levels of government and state-linked structures.
The source told Kyiv Post that Moscow believes that halting or limiting flows through these routes could inflict losses on Western energy companies, deepen supply shortages in Europe, and trigger a spike in global oil prices. The ultimate objective, according to Ukraine’s intelligence assessment, would be to pressure the European Union into easing sanctions on Russia’s energy sector “under the weight of objective circumstances.”
“To implement this scenario, the possibility of implementing a series of proactive measures to exacerbate the hydrocarbon shortage in European countries is being considered,” the source said.
“In particular, options are being explored to suspend the operation of the ‘Turkish Stream’ and the ‘Tengiz-Novorossiysk’ oil pipeline, which supply energy resources to European countries, under the pretext that they have been damaged by Ukrainian [drone] strikes.”
Moscow reportedly believes that suspending operations on these pipelines would inflict significant losses on Western energy companies and create a shortage of raw materials in the EU, leading to a significant rise in oil prices and ultimately forcing the European Commission to ease sanctions against the Russian energy sector “under pressure from objective circumstances.”
These efforts, Ukrainian intelligence suggests, predate recent escalations in the Persian Gulf and are tied to broader geopolitical tensions affecting global energy supply.
Russian special services (the country’s intelligence and security agencies) are believed to have been tasked with implementing the plan.
Ukrainian intelligence also links the strategy to remarks by Russian President Vladimir Putin at a Feb. 24 meeting of Russia’s Federal Security Service board – during which he publicly warned of alleged threats to Russian oil and gas pipelines, including the TurkStream and Blue Stream natural gas pipelines in the Black Sea.
The HUR believes that such statements form part of a broader narrative-setting effort.
Kyiv Post’s source further pointed to comments made by Russian diplomat Vasily Nebenzya at a March 23 UN Security Council meeting, where he accused Ukraine of targeting Russian energy infrastructure.
Russian state media has also widely amplified claims of Ukrainian drone attacks on compressor stations – facilities which help enable the movement of gas from one location to another – tied to key Russian energy export routes.