Russia’s current push to redirect liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from Europe to Asia is running into logistical limits, according to a recent report by Norway’s Center for High North Logistics (CHNL).
The CHNL found that a shortage of specialized vessels and longer distances required to reach the Asian market for Yamal LNG, Russia’s flagship LNG project, have hindered the Kremlin’s plan to redirect LNG exports from Europe to Asia.
The Maritime Executive, citing CHNL’s report, said Yamal’s operation depends on a scarce fleet of Arc7 and Arc4 ice-class tankers capable of navigating Arctic waters. Redirecting cargoes to Asia significantly lengthens voyages and reduces the number of deliveries.
Analysts estimate that if all of Yamal’s exports were diverted to Asia, Russia’s fleet would complete approximately 120-130 voyages per year, which is less than half the current turnout.
Russia has depended heavily on the European market, with Europe purchasing an estimated €7.2 billion ($8.3 billion) worth of Russian LNG in 2025. As the EU braces for a full Russian gas ban by 2027, Moscow plans to pivot toward Asian markets, though current transport capacity is likely insufficient to maintain these export levels.
Western sanctions on Russia’s shipbuilding industry have also halted construction of new tankers, exacerbating Moscow’s problems.
Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin has previously quipped that the Asian markets might be more profitable while hinting at an immediate gas cutoff to the EU.
Leveraging the energy crisis?
But with energy prices surging after the outbreak of war in Iran, some suggest Moscow might leverage the price hike to push for sanctions relief in Europe.
Market data show that tighter shipping capacity, longer delivery times and higher transport costs have constrained access to global gas supplies, contributing to rising prices worldwide. On Monday, Brent crude hovers around $110 per barrel – roughly 30 % higher than before the Iran conflict, according to Financial Times (FT) data.
Ukraine’s military intelligence service (HUR) has warned that the pressure may be intentional.
In an exclusive comment to Kyiv Post, a source from HUR suggested that the Kremlin is preparing ways to deepen energy shortages in Europe to force a rollback of sanctions.
“In particular, options are being explored to suspend the operation of the ‘Turkish Stream’ and the ‘Tengiz-Novorossiysk’ oil pipeline, which supply energy resources to European countries, under the pretext that they have been damaged by Ukrainian [drone] strikes,” the official said.
Russian officials believe even temporary disruptions could trigger price spikes difficult enough to strain European economies and revive debate over softer restrictions on Russian energy exports.
European officials, however, have repeatedly said that returning to Russian gas would be a mistake, despite rising costs. The EU plans to ban short-term Russian LNG contracts starting this year, followed by a near-total embargo in 2027.
That timeline increases the stakes for Russia’s Arctic LNG plans, which were designed around European demand. Without proper logistics to enter the Asian market, Russia risks losing both revenue and reliability as an energy supplier.
At the same time, shipping constraints, sanctions, and pressure tactics are likely to keep gas markets strained in the coming months, with prices driven by geopolitics rather than demand alone.