North Korea’s expanding nuclear program is approaching a scale that could challenge the United States’ ability to defend against a missile attack, according to Bloomberg.
Citing intelligence estimates and expert assessments, the Bloomberg report warns that Pyongyang is steadily increasing both its stockpile of nuclear warheads and the systems designed to deliver them.
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung said in late January that North Korea is now capable of producing enough fissile material for up to 20 nuclear warheads annually.
Ongoing construction and modernization of production facilities could further accelerate that pace.
At the same time, North Korea continues to advance its missile technology. Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) such as the Hwasong-15, -17, -18, and -19 could already provide sufficient firepower to overwhelm the US ground-based midcourse missile defense system, the report says.
That system – developed at a cost of roughly $65 billion – was designed to intercept a limited number of incoming warheads.
A growing arsenal of shorter-range missiles also poses a threat to US allies in Asia, as well as American military installations in Guam, which hosts one of the world’s largest ammunition depots.
Estimates of North Korea’s ICBM inventory vary widely. The US Defense Intelligence Agency previously assessed that Pyongyang possesses around 10 such missiles. However, analysts say the number could be significantly higher.
Vann Van Diepen of 38 North, an analytical group on North Korea, estimates that Pyongyang may have up to 48 launchers and around 24 operational ICBMs, with production ongoing.
The US missile defense system currently includes 44 interceptor missiles deployed in Alaska and California, with plans to add 20 more in Alaska.
However, it was not designed to counter a rapidly expanding and increasingly sophisticated threat.
Washington is also developing the “Golden Dome” missile defense initiative, aimed at protecting the US from a broader range of airborne threats, including those from North Korea, China, and Russia.
Analysts caution that such a system could cost upwards of $1 trillion and still face significant technical challenges.
Experts also note that a single ICBM can carry multiple warheads or submunitions, complicating interception efforts and further straining defensive systems.
Even under more conservative estimates – around 12 to 15 new warheads per year North Korea’s growth rate outpaces that of other nuclear states, including India, which currently has an estimated 180 warheads.
During US President Donald Trump’s first term, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s regime was believed to produce enough material for roughly six warheads annually.
Despite a period of diplomatic engagement that saw tensions ease, North Korea continued advancing its nuclear capabilities.
North Korea has never tested an ICBM equipped with a live nuclear warhead, and it is unclear whether its missiles could reliably survive reentry, evade US defenses, or deliver a payload across intercontinental distances.
An article by the Polish Institute of International Affairs asserted that Pyongyang received political, economic, and technological support from Moscow for its nuclear program in exchange for backing Russia’s war in Ukraine, including troop deployments.