Iran has considered striking US military targets in southeastern Europe and Cyprus if US President Donald Trump escalates the war, according to people close to the Iranian regime cited by the Financial Times.
According to the Financial Times on Tuesday, two regime insiders said Iranian forces had assessed potential strikes against US assets in countries such as Bulgaria, which approved the use of its Bezmer air base for US refueling aircraft last month.
One of the insiders said Cyprus was also among potential targets for retaliation. The British air base at Akrotiri on the island was struck by a drone in March.
Iranian forces have separately examined attacking subsea fiber-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz if the conflict escalates, the insiders said.
The threats come as negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have stalled and tensions between Tehran and Washington remain high. Trump said Tuesday that there were “no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled” with Iran.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other Iranian military commanders have warned that any new full-scale conflict could prompt Tehran to expand its previous strategy of targeting US military assets, energy facilities and other infrastructure in the Middle East to locations farther afield.
Iranian forces last month threatened the UK over the US use of British military bases, saying that “any base that is used to launch an attack on Iranian territory will be considered a legitimate target.”
Iran weighs retaliation beyond the Middle East
The scope of any Iranian response would depend on Washington’s actions, according to the insiders.
One said the Iranian regime was preparing a plan to expand the conflict if Trump followed through on previous threats to attack Iranian infrastructure.
The US president said last month that Washington would destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant every time Iran targeted a ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
The second insider said Iran would place “no limits” on its response to US aggression.
“Should the US go too far, Iran will defend itself at any price, go beyond the region, and hit Europe too,” the person said.
Iran has previously demonstrated its ability to threaten targets far from its territory.
In the weeks after the US and Israel launched the war in February, Washington accused Tehran of firing several missiles toward Diego Garcia, a joint US-UK military base in the Indian Ocean located around 4,000 kilometers (2,485 miles) away. None of the missiles reached the base, according to the report.
In March, Turkey said that NATO air defenses had intercepted several ballistic missiles launched from Iran.
The UK’s Akrotiri air base in Cyprus was also struck by a drone that month. Western officials at the time suspected the drone had been launched by Iranian-backed proxy forces rather than directly by Tehran.
The insiders said the Iranian attack in July that occurred on a US base in Jordan, killing three American service members, was the most precise long-range attack carried out by the Islamic Republic and demonstrated its ability to strike targets at greater distances.
“This was also a message to Europe: it can receive missiles, so it should know where it should stand in this war,” the first insider said.
“A very big mistake, such as hitting our infrastructure, could make the war go beyond the region and reach Europe.”
Experts question Iran’s long-range strike capability
Sidharth Kaushal, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), described the threat posed by Iranian missiles to targets in Europe and elsewhere as “real, but limited.”
Iran could use medium-range ballistic missiles such as those in its Shahab series against US assets in southern and southeastern Europe, Kaushal said. However, he added that the missiles would face difficulties causing significant damage at longer ranges.
Kaushal said Iran could potentially rely more heavily on regional proxy groups, including Shia militias in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
Douglas Barrie of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Iran’s attempted strikes against Diego Garcia demonstrated that Tehran possesses weapons capable of traveling more than 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles).
“How many of these they actually hold is a different question, and whether or not they would be willing to use even a handful to make some kind of grandstanding statement is an open question,” Barrie said.
He added that the risk of missiles failing or being intercepted could limit the value of such attacks, particularly as accuracy becomes more difficult at longer ranges.
Iran hardliners push for tougher stance
Some members of the Iranian regime reportedly fear Tehran is overplaying its hand as negotiations remain stalled.
Many hardliners believe Washington cannot be trusted to implement any future agreement and that Iran must impose greater costs on the US to ensure it fulfills its commitments under a final settlement.
Among them is Mohsen Rezaei, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander whom Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei appointed as the country’s top security official last week.
Iranian analysts interpreted the appointment as a sign that figures such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the country’s top negotiator, have been pushed aside as prospects for a lasting agreement deteriorate.
“Iran is sending a clear message that if you don’t reach an agreement with Ghalibaf, you have to deal with Rezaei,” the second insider said. “The message is: ‘Don’t be mad, because I’m madder than you are.’”
Diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume negotiations over a broader agreement to end the war have so far failed to produce a breakthrough, according to the Financial Times.