The US has finalized comprehensive contingency frameworks to reactivate and significantly broaden its military campaign against Iran if ongoing diplomatic negotiations fail to produce a permanent settlement.
According to a report by The New York Times, the joint US-Israeli military command has entered its most intense phase of strategic preparation since the current truce was implemented. Defense officials indicate that Operation Epic Fury, which was paused to allow space for mediation, could be resumed as early as next week under a potential new operational designation.
“We have an escalation plan if it is necessary,” stated US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, though he acknowledged that the White House simultaneously maintains an alternative script involving the complete withdrawal of over 50,000 US personnel from the Middle East.
High-risk targets and special operations
Planners are weighing a high-risk operation utilizing hundreds of US Special Forces operators to physically seize or neutralize enriched nuclear materials at the hardened Isfahan nuclear facility.
Intelligence sources note that while the core strike team is already in the region, the raid would require thousands of conventional support troops to establish a protective corridor, carrying an elevated risk of American casualties.
Another active scenario involves an amphibious assault to seize Kharg Island, the central hub managing the vast majority of Iran’s maritime oil exports.
The military is prepared to launch expanded, long-range aerial bombardments targeting both primary military installations and dual-use civilian infrastructure across mainland Iran.
Iran’s rapid missile recovery
The rush to finalize these strike options comes amid sobering classified intelligence assessments that contradict initial White House statements claiming the Iranian military had been “crushed” or “decimated”.
US intelligence reports reveal that despite absorbing heavy damage during the initial weeks of the war, Iran has successfully restored operational access to 30 out of 33 critical missile positions lining the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, Tehran retains roughly 70% of its mobile missile launchers, 70% of its pre-war ballistic inventory, and 90% of its subterranean storage bunkers – presenting an immediate threat to Allied warships and commercial shipping lanes.
Currently, the US maintains a formidable strike footprint in the region to back its diplomatic leverage, including 5,000 Marine Corps personnel, 2,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division an two active Carrier Strike Groups, over a dozen guided-missile esmincers (destroyers), and hundreds of combat aircraft staged across regional airbases.
The Beijing accord
The military posturing coincides with major diplomatic movements following US President Donald Trump’s high-profile bilateral summit in Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
While the summit featured sharp warnings from Xi regarding the destabilizing potential of the Taiwan question, the US and China managed to solidify a rare, foundational consensus regarding the Middle East crisis. Washington and Beijing reached a firm agreement in principle that Iran cannot be permitted to acquire a nuclear weapon under any circumstances.
To reinforce this diplomatic alignment, Trump is reportedly considering a targeted easing of secondary US sanctions against Chinese state and independent energy companies that continue to purchase Iranian crude.
This potential concession is designed to maintain Beijing’s cooperation in pressuring Tehran to sign a comprehensive non-proliferation framework, even as the Pentagon keeps its strike aircraft fueled and ready if the diplomatic window slams shut.