If parliamentary elections were held on June 9, four major political parties would pass the 5 percent threshold required to enter the Verkhovna Rada, according to survey results published on June 3 by two polling groups, the Social Monitoring Center and the Ukrainian Institute of Social Research.

Their polling shows that the Servant of the People party, associated with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, could take as much as 40.9 percent of decided voters, leaving its competitors well behind.

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Second place and 11.1 percent of the vote would go to the recently-formed pro-Russian bloc, Opposition Platform – For Life (currently has 20 seats in the parliament), headed by Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk. He is a close ally and friend to Russian President Vladimir Putin and a long-time intermediary between Kyiv and the Kremlin. Medvedchuk’s pro-Russian alliance also includes Yuriy Boyko and Vadym Rabinovych from the Opposition Bloc, formerly known as the Party of Regions.

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The European Solidarity party, a recent rebranding of the former Petro Poroshenko Bloc party (currently has 136 seats in the Rada), led by former president Poroshenko, would be expected to get 10.5 percent of the vote, while the Batkivshchyna Party (now has 20 seats in the Rada) led by Yulia Tymoshenko, a former prime minister, would see 9.3 percent of decided votes.

At the same time, polls predict that three political projects actively involved in the electoral race are not expected to overcome the 5-percent threshold required to get any seats in the Rada.

The Power and the Honor party headed by former Security Service of Ukraine chief Ihor Smeshko (who unexpectedly gained 6 percent of votes at the March 31 presidential election) would be supported by only 4.9 percent of voters, while the Civil Position party associated with another former presidential candidate, Anatoliy Grytsenko, would get 4.8 percent.

Polls show that things are not looking great for the Voice party, headed by rock star Svyatoslav Vakarchuk. The popular singer’s political project launched in mid-May would get only 3.3 percent of votes.

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Servant of the People has most of its support in Ukraine’s east: 51.7 percent of decided voters, as well as in the country’s central and southern regions.

In Ukrainian-controlled parts of eastern Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, together known as the Donbas region, the most popular political force is Opposition Platform – For Life. While 41.9 percent of voters in the troubled Donbas are ready to support this party, pollsters also said that “neighboring regions” of Ukraine’s east will only see 17.9 percent of voters supporting the Russia-aligned party.

Poroshenko’s party European Solidarity appears popular in Ukraine’s west (15.1 percent) and south (13 percent), while its rating in the rest of the country is lower.

Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna party has relatively proportional levels of support throughout the country, regardless of region, with voter support fluctuating between 8.9 and 11.2 percent. In the Donbas, however, and other eastern regions it can rely on only 4.7 to 4.8 percent of defined voters.

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