In an annual risk report, the head of the military intelligence unit Nils Andreas Stensones, said its advantage in troop numbers and material supplied by countries like China and North Korea meant Moscow was in a stronger position than a year ago.
Stensones said Ukraine would need "extensive" Western military aide to turn the situation around.
“In this war, Russia is currently in a stronger position than it was a year ago and is in the process of gaining the advantage,” Stensones told reporters.
He said Russia “could mobilise around three times more troops than Ukraine,” that “Moscow is tackling sanctions better than expected,” and its industry can now produce enough munitions, combat vehicles, drones and missiles to enable its troops to “maintain their war effort all year.”
Russia is also receiving military support from North Korea, Iran, Belarus and China, he said. China had not supplied arms but “machines, vehicles, electronics, and spare parts” needed by Moscow's arms industry.
“Extensive Western weapons aid would be needed for Ukrainian forces to be able to defend themselves and regain the initiative in the conflict,” Stensones said.
He highlighted Kyiv's requests for munitions, long-distance weapons, air defences, tanks and fighter jets.
Norway has, together with Denmark and the Netherlands, agreed to provide Ukraine with the F-16 fighter jets it has requested from its allies.
“Norway and Europe must be ready to take more responsibility to ensure their own security and that of their allies,” Norwegian Defense Minister Bjorn Arild Gram said.
The United States has been Kyiv's main military donor since Russia's invasion in February 2022, but Congress has failed to agree on new aid and the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House have put greater responsibility on Europe to step up.
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