ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 2, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev used a three-way interview with Western and Russian newswires and an ultranationalist milblogger to reaffirm that Russia’s demands for Ukraine “remain unchanged” and to reject security guarantees for Ukraine.
• Medvedev continued to use nuclear carrots and sticks, likely in an attempt to distract attention from and secure concessions during US-led peace negotiations on Ukraine.
• Medvedev implicitly threatened and accused Finland of dismantling Russian-Finnish relations.
• Medvedev subtly threatened Russians who do not support Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine and possibly against NATO.
• Russian forces continue efforts to seize Lyman and subsequently launch an offensive on Slovyansk, but likely do not have the offensive capability to do so in the short-term, in part due to Ukrainian counterattacks in the Kupyansk direction.
• ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are at least several months away from being able to begin a ground offensive against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt from the north or east.
• The Ukrainian government is working with SpaceX to prohibit all non-registered Starlink satellite terminals from operating in Ukraine as part of joint efforts to counter Russia’s use of Starlink to operate drones in Ukraine.
• Belarus continues to increase the frequency of its balloon incursions into Polish airspace.
• Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast, the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and near Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole.

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