OPINION: Putin Tests NATO’s Resolve in the Baltics

Putin is clearly acting to test NATO's resolve to defend the Baltic states, and Finland, under its Article 5 collective security defence clause. He is trying to undermine the sovereignty of the Baltic states, push the limits, test, with all this malign activity. It is also about creating a crisis to extract leverage. Putin wants to create a crisis in the Baltics.

This is now clear after raising the spectre of a Russia - Finland/Lithuania maritime border dispute, now similar territorial disputes with Estonia on the Narva river. And we have had all the air traffic disruption to the Baltics states in recent months.

Thin end of the wedge - would Russia actually invade the Baltic states? Putin wants us to think he would. We should not rule it out - Russia would lose a war with NATO very quickly. He knows that but wants to take leverage to extract concessions elsewhere.

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NATO has to respond now forcefully, absolutely showing its resolve to defend the Baltic states and Finland - NATO members will need to deploy more assets to the Baltic states and Finland. Perhaps Turkey could join/help herein.

Comes also as China is testing Taiwan's defences - think Putin is using the distraction from that to try and get away with blurring the lines on the Baltic's borders and their sovereignty.

This has the makings of a proper crisis.

Other Topics of Interest

Security Guarantees for Ukraine, Ratcheting up Sanctions, Kharkiv Offensive

More from the author’s weekly update in his Newsletter on several key developments.

Notable that it also comes as a) Putin is cleaning up the MOD, hiring Belousov, and sending a message that the Russian economy will/can go on to a full war footing, for as long haul war in Ukraine. B) After the Xi - Putin summit, where Putin tried to re-inforce the point made in a) above, that China stands behind the Russian war economy.

It feels to me that Putin is shaping up here for talks with the West, Biden or Trump, over Ukraine, and wants to take maximum leverage into those talks.

Ukraine might not be ready for any such talks - but if Trump wins in November, finance/resources might force it to the table. I tend to think that the Biden administration is trying to get the $61bn in support to Ukraine ASAP, and then this new $50bn initiative on frozen RU assets is also part of that process of Trump proofing Ukraine and giving it maximum leverage in any future peace talks.

I think also we are seeing a shift on a lot of fronts now - movement from the US over allowing its weapons to be used to strike into Russia, and also talk of NATO extending some kind of air defence umbrella over some part of Ukrainian territory from missiles defences located within NATO.

Reprinted from the author’s @tashecon blog! See the original here.

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.