ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s invitation to engage in bilateral negotiations in Istanbul and continues refusing to offer concessions to end the war in Ukraine.
• The Russian delegation in Istanbul does not include officials in Putin’s innermost circle and is largely the same delegation that Russia sent to the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in 2022 in Istanbul.
• Medinsky explicitly described the May 2025 Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Istanbul as a continuation of the early 2022 Istanbul negotiations during which Russia issued demands that were tantamount to Ukraine’s complete capitulation.
• Medinsky also reiterated Putin’s longstanding demands that any resolution to the war must result in regime change in Ukraine and restrictions on NATO.
• Reported Kremlin instructions to Russian media explaining how to cover the Istanbul negotiations indicate that the Kremlin is preparing the Russian population for a longer war in Ukraine and is not interested in engaging in good-faith negotiations that require compromises from both sides.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Novopavlivka, and Velyka Novosilka.

Authors: Angelica Evans, Nicole Wolkov, Olivia Gibson, Anna Harvey, and Frederick W. Kagan with William Runkel.

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