ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 4, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• US, Ukrainian, and Russian delegations continued trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE) on February 4.
• Senior Kremlin officials and mouthpieces reiterated Russia’s commitments to its war goals and explicitly rejected Western-backed security guarantees for Ukraine, likely to set information conditions to reject any peace deal that does not concede to Russian demands.
• The United States concluded a deal to transport liquified natural gas (LNG) to Ukraine through the Vertical Gas Corridor.
• Russian forces are intensifying their battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, setting conditions for future offensive operations against Kostyantynivka using lessons learned from Pokrovsk.
• The Russian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) have already reportedly formed seven regiments, 25 battalions, one division, and three detachments separate of the Russian Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies and the BARS-Sarmat Unmanned Systems Special Purpose Center.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Major General Oleh Luhovskyi as the acting head of the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service on February 4.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk and Hulyaipole and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk, Pokrovsk, Hulyaipole and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

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