ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian forces conducted a large drone and missile strike series against Ukraine on the night of July 1 to 2, primarily targeting Kyiv City and killing at least 27 and injuring at least 91.
• The frequency of Russian large-scale drone and missile strikes against Ukraine lessened in June 2026 for unclear reasons. Russian forces likely retain the ability to conduct large-scale drone and missile strikes against Ukraine several times per month, as they have in recent months.
• Russian technological adaptations and strike package innovations continue to lead to increasing amounts of civilian harm, in part because these adaptations are making it more difficult for Ukrainian forces to shoot down Russian drones and missiles.
• Russia has been using its shadow fleet vessels to facilitate its drone incursions into NATO airspace since 2024.
• The Russian military command is reportedly reducing its plans to augment strategic reserves in favor of replenishing Russian frontline troops.
• Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces made confirmed advances on July 2.
• Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure on the night of July 1 to 2.

See the original here.