Members of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine – Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe on Oct. 1 agreed to a peace process known as the “Steinmeier Formula,” green-lighting local elections in the Russian-controlled regions of Donbas.
The agreement envisages that the occupied areas of eastern Ukraine get a special self-governing status after they hold local elections. The elections have to take place in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and be approved by the OSCE.
A key condition for the elections to take place is for the Russian forces and Russian-backed militants to leave the territory and for Ukraine to regain control over the eastern border with Russia, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
“There will be no elections ‘at the gunpoint’,” Zelensky said at a press conference in Kyiv on Oct. 1. “If someone (militants) will be there, there will be no elections.”
The elections in the occupied zone will be monitored by the OSCE and conducted by the Ukrainian Central Election Commission. Ukrainian observers, independent press and political organizations must be permitted to take part in the electoral process.
If the OSCE concludes that the election was fair, the region will receive self-governance instantly.
Zelensky didn’t specify what kind of self-governance the regions will obtain.
Ukraine’s leader also noted that the acting provisional law on the special territorial status for Russian-occupied Donbas would expire after Dec. 31, 2019, therefore the Verkhovna Rada would prepare a brand new legislation act on Donbas “in close cooperation and in public discussion with society.”
“And in this new law, no “red lines” will be crossed,” Zelensky said. “Therefore, there can be no instrument of surrender (in war).”
He did not specify what certain “red lines” he was talking about.
He also noted that it would be this upcoming law on Donbas that the just-agreed “Steinmeier Formula” would be implemented with.
According to Zelensky, green-lighting the Steinmeier Formula also finally paves the way for an upcoming meeting of the so-called Normandy Four of Ukraine, Germany, Russia, and France. The meeting’s exact date, however, is yet to be defined.
Besides, the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk has a discussion regarding another stage of prisoner exchange between Ukraine and the Russia-backed militants in the Donbas. Earlier, following the previous swap held on Sept. 7, the Ukrainian leader asserted the two conflicting nations could have an “all for all” prisoner exchange next time.
The Ukrainian leader noted that one of the Ukrainians held captive in occupied Donetsk, journalist Stanislav Aseyev, had turned 30 the day before, having already spent over 2 years in custody.
“We’re applying maximal effort to bring him and all our citizens back,” the president said.
According to Zelensky, the Group also reached an agreement to launch the mutual withdrawal of manpower and weapons at the front-line sector of Zolote and Petrivske in the Luhansk Oblast. The pullout is expected to follow up the previous withdrawal of opposing forces at the Stanytsia Luhanska entry point close to occupied Luhansk, which was confirmed by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) on June 30.
Zelensky also reacted to recent protects of local civilians in Zolote and Stanytsia Luhanska worried for their security in the wake of Ukrainian troop leaving their fortified positions defending the areas.
“I give my personal guarantees you’ll be protected,” Zelensky addressed the worried civilians. “And that the military pullout won’t have any effect on your security.”
He added that there had already been an example of successful mutual pullout at Stanytsia Luhanska, where a key pedestrian bridge for civilians for crossing the front line is meant to be completed by late November.
The governments of Ukraine and Russia have been widely discussing the so-called “Steinmeier Formula,” a peace plan proposed by the German president back in 2016, for the past several months.
Frank-Walter Steinmeier proposed the formula during his time as German foreign minister, when it became clear that the Minsk peace agreement signed in February 2015, failed.
The formula was simple: hold elections in the occupied territories under Ukrainian legislation and the supervision of OSCE, and if the organization deems these elections free and fair, then the special status of these regions will kick in.
In September, Zelensky planned to discuss the formula during the Normandy Four meeting – leaders of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine, yet the meeting never occurred.
Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko, in a comment to Kyiv Post on Sept. 15, said that even though all sides are willing to discuss Steinmeier’s proposals, the level of these talks may be lowered to avoid responsibility.
“The Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine will probably sign it,” said Fesenko.
“I don’t see Ukraine as the losing side of such a process. Starting this process is more important. Creating the conditions for such elections would amount for the return of Ukraine’s state apparatus to the currently occupied territories,” said Andreas Umland, senior research fellow at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation, in a September comment to Kyiv Post.
The proposal was drafted and dictated from muscovy. Zelenski just agreed to his paymasters.
While I understand that this decision rankles many, I think that it's really the only viable way forward.
These are the facts of the situation:
1) Ukraine isn't (yet) strong enough militarily to take on the Russian army and forcibly evict them from Donbas. Even if it were, the damage and death toll from a full-scale war would be devastating.
2) The west isn't willing to go to war to return Donbas to Ukraine, nor are they willing to increase sanctions to make them painful enough for Russia to decide to leave on its own.
The top priority is to get Russian soldiers out of Donbas, return the area to Ukrainian control, and secure the border. *** Once that's done, Ukraine can do whatever it wants there!!! ***
Putin doesn't give a damn about the people of the Donbas. He's just looking for a way out that won't look like a defeat. Also, his cronies desperately want sanctions lifted. So there's absolutely no chance that, once he's pulled Russian forces out, he will send them in again. It simply isn't worth it to him. His gambit to undermine Ukraine's path towards European integration has clearly failed. In fact, all he's done over the past five years is push the rest of Ukraine into the arms of NATO and the EU. All he wants now is to get out.
So if agreeing to "special status" and local elections is what it takes to get Russian troops out of the occupied territories, then fine. The rest of Ukraine is federalizing anyway as more power is being shifted from Kiev to the individual oblasts and cities. Once Russian troops are gone, Ukraine can administer the Donbas region the same way that it runs the rest of the country.
you are very naive if you think Putin will just walk away! of course there will be many people planted to cause problems and Ukraine will not be able to hold anyone accountable for the crimes they committed. What about all the former Donbass residents, will they be able to vote. How about all the Russians Putin has pushed into the area, they will vote. In Crimea Russian soldiers voted for Crimea to leave Ukraine, the same will happen here. I believe Zelensky is betraying his country for personal political goals.
as for pulling out and staying out Russia has never done this anywhere, so please give examples? Georgia? Moldova? how about the attempt to kill Montenegro leaders to install Pro Russians?
and Ukraine can defeat Russia, but needs more time. history is filled with a smaller force winning. Russia is falling apart internally, waiting is amuch better option. giving in to Putin is crazy and will only drive more invasions by Russia.
I agree... All this exposes how compromisisng EU is fearing to iritate Russia(Putin) but the world views how each body is acting I say increase the sanctikons squeeze Putin into submittal till his coountrymen in Moscow feel even more losses that will pressure Puti n more but selfishness on part of Germany and reluctance to lsoe what associations they have with Russia impeeding correcting this problem with Russia alot.
Protection to locals more assurd if both waring groups pull back mutually. Russia has proven to change their minds and make their own self interpretations of what they want selfishly than mutual benefiting stipulations that need to be followed. Also suspect think Zelinsky asking for trouble assoiating and allowing ex Yanukovitch associates to infiltrate the new government structure is like allwoing the wolves to enter the hen house . think the risk is too great of contaminating any new proposals going forward.
This is absurd. This is nothing more than recognition of the DNR and the LNR both puppet gov'ts created by Putin's invasion. What is next after the elections; mouth pieces in the Rada for Putin to control? Bottom line is this is giving Putin exactly what he wants. The solution is simple. Putin / Russia gets out of Ukraine and respects international law. And who gets to pay the bill for all the destruction in the DNR / LNR that Russia caused and who pays to replace all the equipment that has been removed from Ukraine and taken to Russia? Did Z or his staff even consider the financial costs to repair this mess? Yet alone the cost of having Russian control in the Rada?
Yes agree. How pAYS FOR THE RESTORATIONS??? all those who have not execujted their rightful duties to assure international law is enforced so the IMF, and EU should pay realizing Putin should but never will though if the industrial acquistions are returned to Ukraine then the monies produced by those stolen entities would help restore some compensation.
I think Zelensky is making a serious mistake that Ukraine will pay for years, giving in to Putin is unwise. With his appointments of individuals of questionable character it seems Zelensky will be pushing his own brand of corruption. the eagerness to give to Putin is a shame...
Problems yes agree, but certain concessions Russia (Putin) will expect otherwise he just going to allow his separtists factions to remain endlessly. Granted is not proper that Putin ahs confiscated Crimea and the msot valuable areas of Lugansk & Donbass with the factories & natural resources those areas produce , in truth Putin has stolen more and should not gain further so it becomes cost of livess versus loss of money since Putin has injected Russian patriots in most of the areas alreaady and any voting certainly going to be slanted to Russias favor