Interesting to read China’s 12-point peace plan.                        

It reads a bit like a PR spin for China and effort to make it look good with the global south and little in terms of specifics around hard points to bring solutions and peace. Lots of warm words which say very little and no opportunity to criticize the West missed - but no criticism of Russia, the invader who actually caused all this.

A few observations on the various points.

China supporting sovereignty, territorial integrity & international law - well, hell yes, that means Russia has to withdraw to February 2014 settings, so getting out of Donbas, Kherson, Zaporizhzhya and Crimea.

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Security of one country should not be at the expense of others - well Ukraine is the victim here of Russian aggression and insecurity as a result of Russian invasion. Georgia and Moldova have suffered a similar fate. China blames NATO though. But what’s the hard solution? Get Ukraine to give up on NATO membership for State of Israel type security guarantees from the US and its allies? Remember lots of countries want to join NATO, and not the CSTO, because it’s Moscow that keeps doing the invading. Stop invading and generally being a bad actor and then NATO enlarging might stop.

Ceasing hostilities - at least no mention of an immediate ceasefire which Ukraine will never accept until Russian troops leave its territory (see point 1 about Russia’s illegal occupation). And momentum is on Ukraine’s side and it thinks it can get its land back now thru military means. Why give up and cede the momentum back to Russia?

Chinese Military Delegation Negotiates Logistics Cooperation with Belarus
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Chinese Military Delegation Negotiates Logistics Cooperation with Belarus

The visit coincided with the ongoing “anti-terrorist” exercise involving Chinese and Belarusian troops on the Polish border, with the discussions on “logistics support” a cause of some concern.

Resuming peace talks - sure. We look forward to China actually doing something as it’s been sitting on its backside for the past year and enjoying the benefits of cheap, discounted Russian energy. What’s changed? It now actually thinks Putin might lose so is now intervening to try and save his arse. China worries that post Putin Russia might end up being aligned with the West against China. That’s a nightmare scenario so hence this peace effort to try and give Putin a face-saving peace.

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Resolving the humanitarian crisis - absolutely. But the humanitarian crisis that Russia caused by its invasion of Ukraine.

Protecting civilians and POW - absolutely.

Keeping nuclear plants safe - absolutely, but again it’s been Russian troops trying to capture them and cut them off from the Ukrainian grid that’s been the problem.

No use of WMD - clear message there to Putin. A red line for China on escalation to WMD. That’s positive.

Facilitating grain exports - agreed. Again, message to Putin, don’t starve the global south. Again positive.

Stopping universal sanctions - well yeah if Russia just abides by point 1 and left Ukraine.

Don’t rock global supply chains - now we are getting at what China really wants. China hates this war as it has disrupted the status quo on global markets and caused a global cost of living crisis which even Xi has struggled with. Again, a clear red line to Putin - don’t escalate to the point that it hurts the global economy.

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Promoting post war reconstruction. Nice that China seems to be offering to pay something - albeit let’s hope it’s not thru those market interest rates it’s entities have lent at thru the OBOR initiative which has ended up bankrupting most of the recipients and where China is now resisting restructuring.

 

Reprinted from@tashecon blog. See the original

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