• Over the past three weeks, Russia has likely lost around 200 armoured vehicles during its assaults on the Donbas town of Avdiivka. This is likely due to a combination of relative effectiveness of Ukraine’s modern hand-held anti-armour weapons, mines, uncrewed aerial vehicle-dropped munitions, and precision artillery systems.
  • In response, Russian forces have highly likely switched to conducting dismounted infantry-based assaults in this sector. Ukrainian forces faced similar tactical challenges as the attacking force over the summer.
  • Like previous Russian offensives, the Avdiivka assaults have often been characterised by advances across open ground, leading to high losses. It is plausible that Russia has suffered several thousand personnel casualties around the town since the start of October 2023. Russia’s leadership continues to demonstrate a willingness to accept heavy personnel losses for marginal territorial gains.
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