Russian Advance in Ukraine Slows for 4th Month: AFP Analyzing ISW

Russia advanced 240 square kilometers (93 square miles) into Ukrainian territory in March, marking a slowdown for four months in a row, according to AFP’s analysis of data from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Moscow’s advances slowed each month since peaking at 725 square kilometers (280 square miles) in November 2024, following significant Russian movements on the front line since the previous summer.

Russia took nearly 150 square kilometers (58 square miles) less in March than in February.

Despite these slowdowns, the last 12 months have been marked by Russian troops advancing in Ukraine and Ukrainian forces failing to make significant gains.

From April 2024 to March 2025, the Ukrainians regained only 77 square kilometers (30 square miles), while the Russians advanced on 4,772 square kilometers (1,842 square miles). 

Russian forces therefore advanced on 4,695 square kilometers (1,813 square miles), or 0.78% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and the Donbas region. 

Conversely, from April 2023 to March 2024, the Ukrainians had generally regained ground from the Russians. 

While the Russians had advanced on 1,300 square kilometers (502 square miles), Ukrainian forces had simultaneously recovered 1,373 square kilometers (530 square miles). 

In Russian territory, Moscow’s forces have almost entirely driven the Ukrainians out of the Kursk region.  

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They are only present in a pocket of 80 square kilometers (31 square miles), representing 6% of the maximum extent of the Ukrainian offensive in Russia. 

This offensive began in August 2024, and had reached around 1,300 square kilometers (502 square miles) in two weeks. 

This area of operation shrank over the following months and by the end of 2024 it covered less than 500 square kilometers (193 square miles).  

March 2025 saw an acceleration of the Russian counteroffensive, which reduced the area of Ukrainian operations from more than 400 square kilometers (154 square miles) to about 80 square kilometers (31 square miles), an 80% reduction in one month.

AFP’s calculations are based on files shared daily by ISW, which relies on information provided by both sides, and the analysis of satellite images.