ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov rejected another US-Ukrainian general ceasefire proposal on May 10 amid continued Russian demands that any future ceasefire include conditions that support Russia’s long-term goal of gaining control of all of Ukraine and would allow Russia to resume offensive operations from a more advantageous position at a time of its choosing.
• The UK and French-led Coalition of the Willing expressed support for the US-Ukrainian proposal of a general ceasefire of 30 days or more on May 10.
• Iran will reportedly deliver short-range ballistic missile launchers to Russia for use in Ukraine.
• The United States Embassy in Kyiv issued a statement on May 9 warning of a significant Russian air strike against Ukraine over the next several days -- potentially involving Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missiles.
• US and Western military support remains vital to Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russian aggression.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast, and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.

Authors: Angelica Evans, Nicole Wolkov, Olivia Gibson, Anna Harvey, and Frederick W. Kagan with William Runkel.

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