Russia-Ukraine War: Any Chance of a Negotiated Solution?

After a second round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia on 2 June in Istanbul, prisoner swaps were agreed, but the two countries are no closer to a ceasefire

Torpedo the ‘playing for time’ strategy

Italy’s Avvenire makes the case for a step-by-step approach:

The best idea is to calibrate the pressure on Vladimir Putin, in particular to overcome one of the main obstacles blocking the negotiation process, namely the idea that time is working in Moscow’s favor. ... This plan would include a new air and missile defense package for Kyiv (if cities are protected, the offensive will be less effective) and a step-by-step seizure of frozen Russian funds and assets for as long as the Kremlin refuses to negotiate on an equal footing. ... The aim of this tactic is not to escalate the war, but to destabilize Russia’s military-industrial complex and make clear that negotiations would also benefit the aggressor.

Sanctions starting to work

The pressure on Putin must be maintained, writes Russia expert Zoltán Sz. Bíró in Hungary’s Élet és Irodalom:

It’s clear that this year [Russia’s economy] is by no means doing as well as in previous years. But that doesn’t mean that the Russian economy will collapse in the short term. At the same time, Putin must now reckon with far more limited opportunities than before. The sanctions are gradually beginning to have an ever-stronger impact. Under these circumstances, it would be a serious mistake to release Russia from the pressure of sanctions. As the last few years have shown, Putin’s autocracy only understands the language of might. It’s time Trump finally realized this too.”

Other Topics of Interest

Sweden May Hand Seized Russian Shadow Fleet Ship to Ukraine

A Swedish court has upheld the seizure of the cargo ship Caffa, suspected of sailing under a false flag and carrying grain removed from Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory. The vessel may be handed over to Ukraine once the ruling becomes final.

Scorched earth not enough for Putin

Russia’s lacking willingness to negotiate is due to the current situation on the front, observes journalist and Ukrainian MP Mykola Knjaschyzkyj in Ukraine’s Espreso:

Putin sees the war ending only in the context of his own victory. However, halting the war at the front line as it stands now would not ensure such a victory. In this case, Russia would only be left with scorched Ukrainian land under its control – the occupier of an area where no one and nothing remains which could be passed off as a victory to Russian society. The occupation of Bakhmut is not reason enough for a parade in Red Square.

Not hope, only security

Ukraine expert Balázs Jarábik in Slovakia’s Új Szó analyses the logic of fear and its potential consequences:

While Europe sees the return of Trump as the greatest strategic challenge, the war has taken on a new dimension. The military situation, diplomatic maneuvers and strategic threats are intensifying. Concerns about the vulnerability of nuclear infrastructure are reinforcing the logic of fear, especially since the attack on Russian strategic aircraft. This fear – and not a victory – might ultimately be the only factor that forces the warring parties to reach a compromise. A peace that offers not hope, but “only” security.

See the original here.