ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 31, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on July 31 that Russian forces completed the seizure of Chasiv Yar, although available geolocated footage does not support claims that Russian forces have yet advanced to the western administrative boundary of the town.
• Russian forces have taken 26 months to advance 11 kilometers from the western boundary of Bakhmut, which Russian forces seized in May 2023, to western Chasiv Yar.
• Russian forces will likely complete the seizure of Chasiv Yar in the coming days, which will open several possible avenues for Russian forces to attack Ukraine’s fortress belt — a series of fortified cities that form the backbone of Ukraine’s defensive positions in Donetsk Oblast.
• Russia has launched a simultaneous kinetic and cognitive response to US President Donald Trump’s efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• The Kremlin’s nuclear threats and rhetorical efforts to delay peace negotiations are part of a broader cognitive campaign to undermine US-led efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is a decisive enabler of devastating long-range Russian strikes against the Ukrainian rear.
• European and US sanctions appear to be degrading Russian revenues from third-country importers of Russian oil.
• Russia continues to look to its small coalition of international partners to lend legitimacy to its illegal occupation and annexation of Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces continue to innovate technical solutions to offset Russian strike adaptations.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law on July 31 designed to safeguard the independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAP).
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast and near Lyman and Velykomykhailivka. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.

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