ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• US President Donald Trump expressed the United States’ willingness to facilitate substantive peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in an effort to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine.
• Trump signaled that the United States would aim to return some of Ukraine’s economically and strategically significant territories during the peace negotiations process.
• Trump indicated that Putin’s fear of the impact of US sanctions against Russia and Russia’s economic partners drove Putin to propose a bilateral summit.
• Putin’s decision to reach out immediately before Trump imposed further economic restrictions against Russia or its trading partners undermines the Kremlin’s ongoing narrative that sanctions have not and will not affect the Russian economy.
• Kremlin officials continue to emphasize that Russia is unwilling to compromise and remains committed to achieving its original war goals in Ukraine.
• Russian officials and media are also setting informational conditions for Russia to renege on any future peace agreement to end the war.
• Putin may try to use the prospect of US-Russian arms control talks to gain concessions from Trump about the war in Ukraine in the August 15 meeting in Alaska.
• Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are reportedly infiltrating areas near Dobropillya (northwest of Pokrovsk), and Russian forces likely recently advanced southeast of the settlement.
• Ukraine continued its long-range drone strike campaign against Russian defense industrial infrastructure overnight on August 10 to 11.
• Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.

Authors: Angelica Evans, Anna Harvey, Daria Novikov, Jennie Olmsted, and Frederick W. Kagan.

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