ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 19, 2025

Key Takeaways from ISW:

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accurately stated that the Kremlin’s objective in Ukraine is to politically control all of Ukraine rather than to seize select Ukrainian territories such as Donetsk Oblast.
• Russia launched the full-scale invasion in 2022 after failing to secure control over Ukraine by other means.
• Russia similarly seeks to exert influence over the internal governance of other former Soviet countries, including NATO states, effectively denying their sovereignty and setting conditions to threaten their independent governance.
• Lavrov implicitly rejected suggestions that Russia might accept Western security guarantees for Ukraine.
• Russian forces appear to be attempting to counterattack Ukrainian forces clearing the Russian infiltration near Dobropillya as Ukrainian forces increasingly threaten the base of the penetration.
• Russian infiltration tactics and a low manpower density along the frontline in the Pokrovsk direction have seemingly allowed Russian forces to restore limited, tactical maneuver east and southeast of Dobropillya —at least temporarily.
• Ukraine and Russia conducted another exchange of the bodies of soldiers killed in action (KIA) on August 19.
• Ukrainian authorities implicated a soldier of the Russian 82nd Motorized Rifle Regiment in the executions of two Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast in Summer 2024.
• Ukrainian forces advanced near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka. Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk.

Authors: Anna Harvey, Grace Mappes, Daria Novikov, Jessica Sobieski, Justin Young, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan with Nate Trotter.

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