ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 25, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that Russia and the United States did not reach any agreement to end Russia’s war in Ukraine during the August 2025 Alaska Summit.
• The Russian cognitive warfare narrative aimed at painting the Ukrainian frontlines as collapsing appears to have so far failed to persuade Ukraine’s partners to capitulate to Russia’s demands.
• Ukraine’s ongoing strike campaign against Russian refineries is exacerbating broader Russian inflationary pressures and complicating the Kremlin’s efforts to conduct expansionary monetary policy.
• The Russian military command likely continues to generate new formations on paper, but it remains unclear how or if Russia will be able to staff these formations to doctrinal endstrength.
• French authorities seized a Russian shadow fleet oil tanker on June 25.
• Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure within Russia.
• Russian forces launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 90 drones against Ukraine overnight.

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