ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw the final day of the Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 joint military exercises on September 16.
• Ukraine’s ongoing long-range strike campaign targeting critical Russian energy infrastructure continues to degrade Russia’s oil and gasoline markets, likely affecting Russia’s long-term ability to finance its war in Ukraine.
• Ukraine continues to demonstrate its adeptness at innovating and fielding drones with increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence (AI) technology while maintaining accessible costs, significantly augmenting Ukrainian drone effectiveness.
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continues to rhetorically distance himself from Russia’s recent incursion into Polish airspace in an attempt to obfuscate the fact that Belarus is de facto a cobelligerent in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.

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