ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin issued the decree to start the semi-annual fall conscription cycle on October 1.
• The Kremlin plans to spend 17 trillion rubles ($183 billion) on national security and defense in 2026 — about 38 percent of its planned annual expenditures.
• The Russian government is planning to increase funding to televised propaganda – in line with increased restrictions on social media and internet access.
• US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg acknowledged that Ukraine has US permission to conduct long-range strikes against Russian territory.
• Kremlin officials are trying to preemptively deter the United States from providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles.
• European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating within NATO airspace.
• The pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) won a parliamentary majority in the September 28 elections in Moldova, as Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians and Russian officials are preparing to appeal the results and call for protests in the coming days.
• Ukrainian forces advanced near Lyman and in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces advanced near Velykyi Burluk, Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka, and Velykomykhailivka and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

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