ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 1, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• The Kremlin continues the parallel use of nuclear threats and economic incentives to pressure the United States into normalizing US-Russian relations while explicitly rejecting Russian-Ukrainian negotiations.
• Russian shadow fleet oil tankers may be connected to the recent incursions of unidentified drones operating in NATO airspace.
• The Russian command may be redeploying elements of the 98th Airborne (VDV) Division from the Kramatorsk direction to the Kherson direction.
• Gasoline shortages continue in Russia and occupied Ukraine due to repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries.
• The Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) has been disconnected from the Ukrainian power grid for over a week as Russia sets conditions to imminently transfer the plant to the Russian power grid.
• The European Commission (EC) announced a $4.7 billion aid package for Ukraine using funds from frozen Russian assets.
• Russian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area and near Velykomykhailivka and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.

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