ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian forces are resuming their strike campaign against Ukrainian port infrastructure along the Black Sea coast.
• The Russian strikes likely aim to degrade the Ukrainian economy and reduce Ukraine’s export capacity.
• The Russian strikes are likely also a response to Ukraine’s recent strike campaign against Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, but such Russian strike tactics are not new.
• Russia appears to be struggling to deliver its rising seaborne crude oil exports as Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign is reducing Russia’s refining capacity.
• Polish and Baltic officials continue to report that Russia may be planning a false flag attack against NATO.
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov confirmed on July 15 that he is stepping down from his position.
• Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets in Russia on July 12. Russian forces launched two Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 122 drones against Ukraine overnight.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction.

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