OPINION: Ukraine - Reviewing the Peace Plan

Ukrainians are again waking up to the shock news that the Trump administration seems to be trying to impose a peace on Russia’s terms, on Ukraine. See the 28-point plan below.

Going through the points:

Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed.

1. First things first, it’s hard to trust a document that starts by talking about affirming Ukrainian sovereignty but then goes on to detail numerous points that undermine that very sovereignty. It appears as something of an oxymoron.

A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.

2. Second, how can a non-aggression agreement mean anything when Russia has been the aggressor and has invaded Ukraine? What does “all ambiguities over the last 30 years will be considered settled” mean exactly? Where is the detail?

It is expected that Russia will not invade neighboring countries and NATO will not expand further.

3. The weird term “it is expected” that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries, but NATO countries lose their own sovereignty by not being able to decide their alliances in the future. Why does Russia not agree never AGAIN to invade neighboring countries? “Expected” implies some kind of optionality.

A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation.

4. Fair enough, but this somehow implies that the US is above all this and separate from European NATO. It kind of again undermines the perception of the US security backstop for Europe.

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Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.

5. What are these specific security guarantees? Ukraine is expected to give up territory up front, but where is the hard commitment from the US or NATO to intervene to defend Ukraine if this deal is breached? That is the kind of security guarantee required. But later it says no NATO membership for Ukraine, so that suggests actually NATO does not want to go to war for Ukraine, which then shows that any security guarantee as above is not worth the paper it is written on, a La the Budapest memorandum.

The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.

6. Why are troop limitations imposed only on Ukraine? Why does Russia need millions of troops under arms? Is this not a real and continuing threat to Europe? How about limitations on Russian troop deployment on its Western flank? And if Ukraine is being limited in terms of the number of troops, how about some hard commitments in terms of making the 600,000 highly effective with an agreement to supply top-notch Western military equipment to Ukraine to ensure its own defence?

Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.

7. By agreeing to enshrine no NATO in its constitution, does this not go against point 1? This undermines its own sovereignty. And see point 6 above. What is the ultimate security assurance for Ukraine, then? No NATO, but what?

NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.

8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine, but then who is going to police this deal? What about the coalition of the willing? Who will be the peacekeepers to implement a difficult deal? Look at the failures of the UNIFIL in Lebanon.

European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.

9. NATO fighter jets will be stationed in Poland, but so what? What will they do? Will they police a no-fly zone for Russia in Ukraine?

The US will receive compensation for the security guarantee. If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee. If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked. If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invalid.

10. What is the US guarantee? It is not specified. But whatever it is, the US is being paid for it! On what planet is Ukraine going to invade Russia? It says if Russia invades Ukraine, then there will be a decisive coordinated military response, and sanctions will be lifted, but what if Russia attacks Ukraine through missile strikes? How is invasion defined? And what exactly will be the decisive military response? Can Ukraine rely on that security guarantee after Budapest? Later, it says Ukraine cannot hit Russia with long-range missiles, but where is the asymmetry here? What if Russia does the same? What happens if Russia launches hybrid warfare against Ukraine as it has been doing for the full duration of the Putin presidency? Can Russia continue to act to destabilise Ukraine with no sanctions?

Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered.

11. Ukraine is deemed eligible for EU membership, but by later raising doubts about the long-term status of Kherson and Zaporizhiya, surely with a territorial dispute thus festering still the EU will surely stall membership. There is no clear agreement on EU membership here; actually, it weakens and undermines the reality of that.

A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including the creation of a Ukraine Development Fund, rebuilding of Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, the rehabilitation of war-affected areas, development of new infrastructure and resumed extraction of minerals and natural resource, all with a special finance package developed by the World Bank.

12. Fine, but show me, or Ukraine, the money. Ukraine has suffered $1 trillion plus in damages. Who will pay for that? No mention of war reparations.

Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy, with discussions of lifting sanctions, rejoining the G8 group and entering a long-term economic cooperation agreement with the United States.

13. Big wins for Russia, and the US is again being paid for imposing peace on Ukraine. It is like the US is now the agent of Russia and is being paid a commission. How can Europe ever really trust Russia again? Why would Europe go back to increasing its economic reliance and dependency on and vulnerability to Russia?

$100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine, with the US receiving 50 percent of the profits from the venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen, and the remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle.

14. So Ukraine only gets to keep $100 bn of immobilised Russian assets, and is not really able to use them freely, as they will be partly managed by the US, which will again take a commission kind of like blood money. Russia, the aggressor, gets the rest of the money back, and again, the US gets to profit.

A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement.

15. Where will Ukraine, or Europe, fit in this joint Russia-US working group on security to ensure compliance with the agreement? What will the US do if Russia is not compliant?

Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine.

16. It is meaningless for Russia to enshrine a policy of non-aggression towards Ukraine and Europe in its constitution, given that it is an authoritarian state - the constitution can be changed at will. Russia previously guaranteed Ukrainian sovereignty in the Budapest Memorandum, but then invaded Ukraine. Only hard security guarantees really count now for Ukraine.

The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty.

17. START1?

Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

18. See the Budapest memorandum. What good did that do for Ukraine?

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under the supervision of the the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the electricity produced will be distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine.

19. Let’s see.

Both countries undertake to implement educational programmes in schools and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance.

20. Hard to disagree with this, but will Russia really do this? Who is going to police this?

Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognised as de facto Russian, including by the United States. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de-facto recognition along the line of contact. Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions. Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, which will then be used to create a buffer zone.

21. So Ukraine has to withdraw from Donetsk and Luhansk, but what does it get in exchange? How is this process going to be managed? The language on de jure but de facto is unclear. It talks of de facto Russia keeping the territory it occupies, but then later goes on about the international community recognising the demilitarised zone as Russian, on what basis? De jure or de facto? What is the process from going from de facto to de jure? Are there some further talks envisaged?

After agreeing on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this commitment.

22. Fair enough.

Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea.

23. Fair enough.

A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve prisoner exchanges, remains returned, hostages and civilian detainees returned, and a family reunification program will be implemented.

24. “A family reunification programme will be implemented” is code for the return of children?? What about orphans who have been taken by Russia? Or those who have legal guardians in Ukraine but not “parents” technically? Plus, what about those under occupation?

Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days.

25. It will be hard for Ukraine to hold elections in 100 days? What about lifting martial law? This will undermine Ukraine’s security for the election period, and who will guarantee Ukraine’s security for this process? Who will vote? People in occupied areas too? How can the fairness of elections in these areas be assured?

My sense here is that the peace agreement is so detrimental to Ukraine that it will unleash social and political instability in Ukraine, which will be hard to manage, but to the advantage of Russia, which is exactly why Putin is trying to force it down the throat of Ukraine. Putin will use instability in Ukraine as an opportunity to invade and intervene again, as we know he wants control over the whole of Ukraine.

All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.

26. Amnesty for war crimes? And Ukraine gives up its right to reparations? So who is going to pay for the $1 trillion-plus loss to Ukraine? Who pays for Ukrainian reconstruction? Basically, here, Russia sets the precedent that invasion and war crimes pay. It gets to keep all the territory it occupies and pays no price. It just returns to its global status quo before the annexation of Crimea, sanctions are lifted as before, and it pays no price.

This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by US President Donald Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations.

27. The agreement is guaranteed by the Peace Council headed by Trump, but what after Trump? Is this guaranteed by Trump or the US? What does guaranteed mean? If Russia breaks this deal and invades again, what will the US do?

Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will take effect immediately after both sides retreat to agreed points to begin implementation of the agreement.

28. Who will monitor all this? These things are technically very difficult; look at Lebanon now in terms of monitoring the Hezbollah withdrawal.

Net net, I think this agreement will be very hard for Zelensky to accept. Russia gets everything it wants, and Ukraine gets not very much. If Zelensky accepts this, I anticipate huge political, social, and economic instability in Ukraine, a risk of a failed Ukrainian state, and increased and continued security risks to Europe.

This agreement undermines Ukrainian and European security; it does not assure it, unless Trump says openly that if Russia breaks this agreement, the US will come in to defend Ukraine. Will Trump make that commitment? I doubt it.

Reprinted from the author’s @tashecon blog! See the original article here.

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.