- The surface vessels of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet continue to pursue an extremely defensive posture, with patrols generally limited to waters within sight of the Crimean coast.
- This contrasts with heightened Russian naval activity in other seas, as is typical for this time of year.
- The Black Sea Fleet continues to use long-range cruise missiles to support ground offensives but is currently struggling to exercise effective sea control. It has lost its flagship, MOSKVA; a significant portion of its naval aviation combat jets; & control of Snake Island.
- The Black Fleet’s currently limited effectiveness undermines Russia’s overall invasion strategy, in part because the amphibious threat to Odesa has now been largely neutralised. This means Ukraine can divert resources to press Russian ground forces elsewhere.
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