Ukraine Summer Offensive Update for July 12: ‘Berdyansk Bunker Goes Boom’

Snapshot

Storm Shadow hits Russian command post – and commander; “new positions” for Ukrainians southwest and north Bakhmut; one-kilometer Russian gain near Lyman has Shoigu on national TV.

Analysis

Ukraine’s “operational” officials highlighted practical results from the NATO Summit in Vilnius, such as the formalization of the “jet coalition” to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s prior to their potential deployment in 2024, as well as new support packages from UK, France, Germany and other countries.

General Developments

Ukrainian air defense systems were activated around Kyiv early this morning.

Russian forces attempted to strike Odesa’s ports on the first day of the NATO Summit and ahead of the July 17th expiration of the Black Sea Grain Deal.

A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger noted that Ukrainian forces have been systematically targeting Russian-occupied infrastructure in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions – specifically recreation centers that Russian forces use as headquarters and command posts. Explosions yesterday were sounded in the occupied cities of Skadovsk (Kherson region) and Tokmak (Zaporizhzhia region), according to occupation officials.

At the NATO Summit, French President Emmanuel Macron announced France will transfer long-range missiles to Ukraine. Macron did not mention the name of the weapon, but it is most likely to be the SCALP missile – which is equivalent to the UK’s Storm Shadow. France also committed to a further military aid package of $188 million.

Other Topics of Interest

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14, 2024

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

The UK announced a new $65 million package of military assistance for Ukraine, including Challenger 2 ammunition and some 70 infantry fighting vehicles.

NYT reported that the White House is currently considering providing Ukraine with long-range ATACMs missiles.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius confirmed the German government’s refusal to supply Ukraine with Taurus long-range cruise missiles. However, Germany will provide Ukraine with 2 Patriot systems, 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, 25 Leopard 1A5 main battle tanks, and 5 Bergepanzer 2 armored recovery vehicles over an unspecified time period.

Russia yesterday conducted 65 airstrikes and 71 MLRS assaults against Ukrainian positions and population settlements, and Ukraine conducted 15 airstrikes, according to the General Staff.

28 UAVs (drones) deployed yesterday by Russia against Ukrainian positions and population settlements were destroyed, according to the General Staff.

Russian shelled more than 75 Ukrainian population settlements across the Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Mykolayiv regions (which is effectively along the length of the 1,000 kilometer frontline), according to the General Staff.

Operational Aspects in Bakhmut

In a confirmation of recent Ukrainian statements, pro-Russian sources said that Ukrainian forces have occupied “new positions” on the southwest flank of Bakhmut around Klishchiivka.

Pro-Russian sources said that “Ukrainian troops managed to penetrate into the defense of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation from Rozdolivka for one and a half kilometers.” Rozdolivka is about 5 kilometers north of Bakhmut.

Operational Aspects in Luhansk, Avdiivka, Maryinka, Kherson, and other areas

According to local Ukrainian military officials, Russian forces shelled a humanitarian aid headquarters and residential areas in the city of Kherson, injuring at least five people, including an eight-year-old child. A civilian woman was killed in an attack with “Grad” rockets on the village of Sofiivka.

To coincide with the NATO Summit, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu alleged that Russian forces advanced 1.5 kilometers near the town of Lyman in the Donetsk region. “Russian units launched a counterattack, advancing 1.5 kilometers along two kilometers of the front,” Shoigu said on Russian state television.

About this area, pro-Russian sources said, “the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation advanced in the Novoselivske area… to a depth of up to a kilometer, along the front and occupied a section of the Kupyansk-Kreminna highway.”

The Ukrainian General Staff denied the success of Russian attacks in the area and said that Ukrainian troops are “holding their ground.”

Russian forces’ offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna made territorial gains, according to ISW.

Russian forces launched assaults on Ukrainian positions on the Donetsk City-Avdiivka frontline, according to ISW.

Operational Aspects on Boundary of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions and in Western Zaporizhzhia

Ukrainian authorities reported that the Duna hotel in occupied Berdyansk, which houses the local Russian military command, was subjected to a missile strike. According to ISW, the Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile strike reportedly killed Deputy Commander of the Russian Southern Military District (SMD) Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov at the command post of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA).

Pro-Russian sources said Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations near Serebryanka  and Robotyne in the western part of Zaporizhzhia, and near Pryyutne and Staromaiorske in the boundary area.

ISW said that Ukrainian forces continued operations south of Orikhiv and that geolocated footage shows Ukrainian advances northeast of Robotyne.

The General Staff said Ukrainian forces “continue to conduct offensive operations on Melitopol and Berdyansk axes, consolidating their positions, and conducting counter-battery fire.”