ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• The White House reiterated that the United States will not engage in economic agreements with Russia until Russia agrees to a ceasefire, amid continued Russian efforts to deflect blame onto Ukraine for the Kremlin’s rejection of such a ceasefire.
• Russia is reportedly heavily dependent on North Korean artillery ammunition as North Korea continues to learn lessons from Russia’s war against Ukraine.
• Russian authorities recently detained former Kursk Oblast Governor Alexei Smirnov, likely as part of the Kremlin efforts to scapegoat Kursk Oblast officials for their failure in responding to Ukraine’s August 2024 incursion into Kursk Oblast.
• Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces recently executed at least one unarmed Ukrainian prisoner of war (POW) near Rozdolne (northeast of Velyka Novosilka).
• Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.

Authors: Grace Mappes, Daria Novikov, Olivia Gibson, Angelica Evans, Davit Gasparyan, and Frederick W. Kagan with Nate Trotter.

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