ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Ukrainian forces continue to interdict several bridges that support ground lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting occupied Kherson Oblast to Crimea.
• Russian occupation authorities are struggling to address worsening gasoline shortages in occupied Sevastopol, likely due to Ukrainian long- and intermediate-range strikes against Russian logistics and energy infrastructure.
• Ukrainian forces appear to have achieved a tactical drone overmatch on the battlefield and are intensifying middle-range strike campaign, reportedly driving higher Russian casualties on the battlefield amidst declining recruitment rates.
• Russia is establishing new and expanding existing military bases along its northern border with NATO likely in order to support future Russian force projection capabilities against NATO. ISW assesses that Russian forces remain unlikely to conduct ground operations in the near-term, however.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to fabricate evidence as part of its cognitive warfare effort to support false claims of advance.
• Ukrainian forces continued their intermediate- to long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets on June 10 and 11. Russian forces launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 221 drones against Ukraine overnight.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction.

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