ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 23, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• The United States reportedly recently presented Ukraine with a seven-point proposal to end the war in Ukraine in which the United States would recognize Crimea as part of Russia and allow Russian forces to continue to occupy significant parts of southern and eastern Ukraine. Available reporting about the contents of the US proposal suggests that it marks a sudden and substantial change in the Trump administration’s strategy for ending the war in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian officials reiterated Ukraine’s continued commitment to the United States’ March 2025 proposal for a full ceasefire as part of efforts to achieve a lasting peace.
• Russian officials rejected aspects of Trump’s reported peace plan.
• Senior US, Ukrainian, and European officials held bilateral and multilateral talks about support for Ukraine and ending the war in London on April 23, but officials cancelled the scheduled multilateral talks at the foreign minister level.
• The US and Ukraine continue to take steps toward signing a joint mineral deal.
• Ukrainian forces likely conducted a drone strike against the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in the Republic of Tatarstan, where Russia assembles Iranian-provided Shahed drones.
• Russia continues to use chemical weapons against Ukrainian forces and civilians in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), of which Russia is a signatory.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova and Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.

Authors: Olivia Gibson, Grace Mappes, Davit Gasparyan, Nicole Wolkov, Daria Novikov, Angelica Evans, and Frederick W. Kagan with William Runkel.

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