Russia has covertly used nuclear blackmail to influence Western countries, and one such ploy led to the suspension of arms supplies to Ukraine in the fall of 2022, according to Ukrainian Maj. Gen. Ilya Pavlenko.
Pavlenko served in the Security Service of Ukraine’s (SBU) counterintelligence department and later as deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR).
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In an interview with the RBC-Ukraine media outlet, he revealed that Russian – and earlier, Soviet – intelligence agencies often release information that suggests they are considering the use of nuclear weapons. These messages are channeled in such a way that they are sure to reach the leadership of Western nations.
He said such disinformation might be passed through known agents who relay it back to their handlers, ensuring its credibility.
“That’s how materials end up on Biden’s desk, claiming the Russians are allegedly preparing to launch a nuclear strike – maybe in the Black Sea or on some military facility – to spread panic in Ukraine and destabilize Europe,” Pavlenko said.
To enhance the illusion, he added, Russia often amends its nuclear doctrine to appear more aggressive, such as by lowering the threshold for nuclear use, just as Western intelligence begins probing for details about a potential strike.
“For Western intelligence, this becomes a form of confirmation,” he said. “Politicians and military officials cannot ignore it, so this leads to restrictions on strikes, reduced aid, and so on.”
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He recalled that after Ukraine’s Kharkiv offensive in 2022, arms deliveries from the West were suddenly halted – the first major pause in military support.
“If you remember, following the start of the Kharkiv operation, we saw the first long-term suspension of arms deliveries,” he said. “Had that not happened, the war could have taken a very different course.”
“We don’t know for certain, but judging by the [Biden] White House’s reaction, they were likely fed disinformation about a possible nuclear strike, and they may have gotten scared. The result? Suspended aid. So, it’s not just the Russians – it’s also the Americans who are influencing the pace of this war.”
Russia has repeatedly threatened Ukraine and NATO countries with nuclear weapons since the start of its full-scale invasion.
Western media previously reported that in October 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin came dangerously close to authorizing a nuclear strike against Ukraine.
In November 2024, Putin signed off on a new version of Russia’s nuclear doctrine. The updated policy states that Russia could use nuclear weapons if it or its allies are attacked by a non-nuclear state backed by a nuclear power.
Pavlenko also warned that modern Russian intelligence services are now operating more aggressively – and more globally – than ever.
“Once upon a time, Bern was called the ‘spy capital,’ then Geneva, then Vienna,” he said. “At different times, agents from around the world would gather wherever events with global consequences were unfolding – places with concentrations of international organizations or major negotiations.”
Today, Riyadh has become such a hub, he said.
“It’s clear that intelligence personnel work there to support negotiations and ensure the security of participants. But now the geography is much broader, because so many European countries are involved in supporting Ukraine.”
As a result, Russian intelligence activity is flaring up across Europe.
“That’s why we’re seeing Russian agents in Romania, the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland,” Pavlenko said.
He said that in some cases, Russian agents have been attaching sensors to trains carrying weapons, while in others, they have been recruiting individuals – evidence, he added, that their operations have expanded significantly.
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