ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 5, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian forces are reportedly sustaining an average of 1,140 casualties per day and suffering disproportionately high personnel casualties for marginal, grinding territorial gains.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to falsely portray Russia as willing to engage in good-faith negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, despite Russia’s repeated refusal to offer any concessions.
• Ukraine’s allies and partners continued to provide military aid to Ukraine during the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein format) on June 4 and 5.
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced on June 5 the launch of a new initiative for joint production of Ukrainian weapons in Ramstein states in order to supply weapons to the Ukrainian military and to increase Ramstein states’ industrial capacity.
• North Korea reaffirmed its support for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine during Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu’s visit to North Korea on June 4.
• Russian authorities cracked down on a publication that has previously speculated about several Russian command changes.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole and in western Zaporizhia. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Kupyansk, Lyman, and Toretsk.

Authors: Daria Novikov, Anna Harvey, Olivia Gibson, Christina Harward, and George Barros.

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