ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 25, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• US President Donald Trump stated that Russia may have territorial ambitions beyond Ukraine – consistent with ISW’s long-held assessments that Russia is preparing for a future conflict with NATO and setting conditions to justify future aggression against non-NATO former Soviet Union states.
• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio correctly stated that Russia has not shown a willingness to move forward in peace negotiations.
• The Kremlin continues to leverage Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev’s aggressive rhetoric to undermine Western support for Ukraine.
• Russian officials are promoting purposefully vague rhetoric about the “root causes” of Russia’s war against Ukraine in order to allow the Kremlin the flexibility to adapt its demands as it sees fit.
• Russia is reportedly accelerating its missile production capacity with sanctions evasion support from Belarus and the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
• NATO and Western officials reaffirmed their commitment to collective defense and security, to increasing defense spending in the face of increased Russian aggression, and to providing support to Ukraine.
• Ukraine’s European partners continue to allocate military aid to Ukraine and deepen cooperation with the Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB).
• Ukrainian forces likely conducted a long-range strike against a Russian military industrial enterprise in Rostov Oblast on June 24.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova and Velyka Novosilka, and Russian forces recently advanced in Vovchansk and near Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka.

Authors: Anna Harvey, Olivia Gibson, Jennie Olmsted, Angelica Evans, Jessica Sobieski, William Runkel, and Kateryna Stepanenko.

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