ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 30, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• High-ranking Kremlin statements, including from Russian President Vladimir Putin, continue to demonstrate Russia’s wider territorial ambitions in Ukraine beyond Crimea and the four oblasts that Russia has illegally annexed.
• The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (UN OHCHR) issued its December 2024-May 2025 report detailing Ukrainian civilian casualties, systemic Russian mistreatment of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs), and limited Ukrainian mistreatment of Russian POWs.
• The Kremlin is poised to launch a new “national messenger” application affiliated with Kremlin-controlled social media site VKontakte (VK) as part of ongoing efforts to censor Russian citizens and isolate them from the global internet.
• Azerbaijani authorities raided the offices of Russian state-owned propaganda outlet Sputnik in Baku as Russian-Azerbaijani relations have deteriorated recently after a raid against ethnic Azerbaijanis in Russia.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Novopavlivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Authors: Olivia Gibson, Daria Novikov, Christina Harward, Angelica Evans, Jennie Olmsted, Jessica Sobieski, William Runkel, and Frederick W. Kagan.

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