ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 30, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• US President Donald Trump specified a deadline of no later than August 8 for Russian President Vladimir Putin to engage in meaningful negotiations for an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine.
• Kremlin officials continued to posture economic strength in response to US President Donald Trump’s proposed economic measures targeting Russia and rejected Trump’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
• The Russian Presidential Administration reportedly issued guidance to Russian state and pro-Kremlin media outlets and commentators to promote narratives aimed at weakening the United States–European Union (EU) alliance.
• Russian officials are already amplifying the Russian Presidential Administration’s talking points about the US–EU trade deal and likely intend to hinder US–European cooperation in support of Ukraine and collective European defense.
• The Kremlin continues to promote an informal state ideology centered on Russian nationalism that Russia may intend to use in justification of a protracted war in Ukraine and a future conflict against NATO.
• Russian forces continue to systematically violate the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), to which it is a signatory.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman.

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