ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 12, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian forces continued to infiltrate Ukrainian defenses east and northeast of Dobropillya (northwest of Pokrovsk) using limited sabotage and reconnaissance groups on August 12. Russian forces have yet to be able to deploy reinforcements to hold and exploit this tactical penetration and will likely face obstacles in trying to do so.
• Russian milbloggers, who often overinflate Russian advances, questioned Russia’s ability to exploit the tactical penetration.
• The Russian tactical penetration in the Dobropillya direction was not immediate but came rather after months of Russian preparation and condition setting using new drone innovations and tactics at scale.
• Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction are also only the most recent result of over 17 months’ worth of protracted campaigning.
• Russian officials are attempting to exploit the tactical penetration near Dobropillya to influence the upcoming US-Russia summit in Alaska, but the Kremlin’s overall strategic objective is to break the will of Ukraine, the United States, and Europe to achieve Russia’s longstanding demand for full Ukrainian capitulation.
• Ukrainian intelligence indicated that North Korea recently deployed 11,000 soldiers to Russia to facilitate Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, further demonstrating Russia’s commitment to leaning on its anti-Western partners to protract the war in Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Velykyi Burluk, Borova, and Pokrovsk.

Authors: Angelica Evans, Anna Harvey, Daria Novikov, Jennie Olmsted, and Frederick W. Kagan.

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