ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 11, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Polish officials provided additional clarification on the impacts of the September 9-10 Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace.
• Poland’s allies reiterated their support for Poland following the drone incursion, condemning Russia for purposefully conducting the incursion to test NATO readiness.
• Ukrainian officials responded to the drone incursion by drawing parallels to Russian cycles of aggression and escalation against Ukraine and offered to share Ukraine’s now-institutional counter-drone knowledge with Poland.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to destabilize the Balkans and dismantle the 1995 Dayton Accords that ended the 1992-1995 Bosnian War, likely as part of a larger campaign to divide and distract Europe.
• Russian state media is acknowledging the growing gasoline shortages in Russia but is downplaying the role that Ukraine’s deep strike campaign is playing in generating these shortages.
• Sweden pledged additional military and financial assistance to Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Velykomykhailivka, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

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