ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 15, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• The Kremlin is escalating its rhetoric, threatening NATO states in parallel with the kinetic escalation of Russia’s recent drone incursion into Poland.
• Russian and Belarusian forces continued the Zapad-2025 joint military exercises on September 15 and appear to be implementing some tactical lessons from Russia’s experience in Ukraine.
• Russia is using the Zapad-2025 exercises to practice potential future kinetic provocations against neighboring NATO states.
• The September 12-14 gubernatorial elections in Russia further demonstrated the Kremlin’s grip on power throughout the country.
• The Kremlin continues to build out a loyal cadre of elected officials from veterans of its war against Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Novopavlivka and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.

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