ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 23, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• US President Donald Trump expressed confidence in Ukraine’s ability to fully liberate all of its internationally recognized territory that Russia currently occupies, following a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) publicly acknowledged Russia’s intent to advance further into Kharkiv Oblast should Russian forces seize Kupyansk, supporting ISW’s assessment of Russia’s operational intent.
• The Russian MoD’s September 23 statement undermines repeated Russian claims that Russia’s main military objective and territorial demands in Ukraine are limited to Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts.
• The Russian MoD may be issuing this statement about Russian operational intent to justify ongoing Russian operations to seize Kupyansk to Russian society and frontline forces.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova, Novopavlivka and in the Dobropillya tactical area and western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Siversk.

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