ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 8, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to his theory of victory, which holds that Russia can outlast the West and Ukraine in a war of attrition, and his demand for Ukraine’s full capitulation.
• Putin acknowledged Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against Russian oil refineries amidst ongoing gasoline shortages and price surges in Russia and occupied Ukraine.
• The Kremlin is intensifying its efforts to use defunct US-Russian arms control treaties to gain concessions from the United States on the war in Ukraine.
• The Kremlin’s moves to withdraw from PMDA likely immediately aim to prevent US sales of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and are part of an ongoing reflexive control campaign.
• The Russian military command reportedly redeployed elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army (CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) from south of Pokrovsk to the Novopavlivka direction, which will likely improve Russia’s command and control (C2) in both sectors.
• European officials continue to report drone sightings and GPS interference in European airspace.
• European officials continued to warn that Russia’s recent drone attacks against Europe are part of a broader campaign to generate fear and disunity in Europe.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and Novopavlivka, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Siversk, and Pokrovsk and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

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