ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 4, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Recent Russian advances through Pokrovsk are the culmination of a 21-month campaign to seize the town and a five-month dedicated battlefield air interdiction (BAI) effort to degrade Ukrainian defensive capabilities.
• The current battlespace in the Pokrovsk direction took Russian forces 21 months to achieve.
• Russian forces began achieving partial BAI effects against Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the Pokrovsk direction in July 2025, at which point Russian forces effectively denied Ukrainian forces the ability to use Pokrovsk as a logistics hub.
• These Russian BAI interdiction efforts have not proven as effective across the entire frontline, however, and will not necessarily be exportable to other parts of the theater.
• Russian forces continue advancing through Pokrovsk, and Ukrainian forces continue defensive efforts in the Pokrovsk direction.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed two laws on November 4 that likely aim to facilitate the use of Russia’s inactive reserve in a protracted war in Ukraine and a possible war against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), as well as the use of the active reserve in combat in Ukraine.
• Russian forces continue to commit war crimes against Ukrainian civilians.
• Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and within and near Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

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