ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 15, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian forces used weather conditions to exploit vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s drone-based battlefield defenses in the Novopavlivka direction, highlighting Ukraine’s need for traditional weapons systems.
• Ukrainian forces appear to be trying to replicate Russia’s battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign on a limited scale.
• Russia’s large-scale production of glide bombs and Shahed-type drones will continue to facilitate Russia’s BAI campaign on the front.
• North Korea continues to provide military support to Russia and may be preparing to provide Russia with drones in the future.
• Russian forces continue their BAI campaign against Ukrainian railway infrastructure, seeking to disrupt Ukrainian rear logistics hubs to facilitate battlefield gains.
• Russia’s long-range drone and missile strike tactics are precisely targeting gas infrastructure in Ukraine during the heating season.
• Russia appears to be setting conditions to deploy involuntarily called up reservists to occupied Ukraine, likely in an effort to commit them to combat operations.
• Russian forces continue to boast about executing Ukrainian servicemembers.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Novopavlivka, and Hulyaipole and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

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