ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 17, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian forces may be attempting to fix Ukrainian forces within Pokrovsk itself while also encircling Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket from the west, likely because Russian forces have found such an encirclement more feasible than an encirclement from the east.
• Russian forces may attempt to use vehicles to transport troops, likely under the cover of fog, in order to speed up the clearing of Pokrovsk itself.
• Russia is reportedly continuing to struggle to replace its battlefield losses with new recruits.
• Saboteurs recently damaged at least two segments of a Polish railway on a route to Ukraine.
• France agreed to sell Ukraine weapons systems, such as fighter jets and air defense systems.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Novopavlivka.

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