ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 24, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• US and Ukrainian delegations reportedly narrowed down the initial US-proposed 28-point peace plan to 19 points.
• The persistent Russian rate of advance does not indicate that Russian forces will imminently seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian officials and ultranationalist voices continue rejecting the original and revised US-proposed peace plan drafts and are attempting to portray Europe as responsible for the Russian rejection.
• Ukrainian forces maintain a limited presence and continue to counterattack within Pokrovsk, indicating that Russian forces likely remain unable to rapidly seize Pokrovsk at this time.
• Russian forces continue to leverage their new offensive template, which heavily relies on battlefield air interdiction (BAI) efforts and infiltration tactics, to advance in the Hulyaipole direction.
• Belarusian balloons continue incursions in NATO airspace in Lithuania and Latvia.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Velykyi Burluk, Siversk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Velykomykhailivka, and Hulyaipole and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

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