ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian forces have likely begun their anticipated Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against the Ukrainian Fortress Belt, Ukraine’s main defensive line in Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian forces are also setting conditions to begin intensified ground operations in the Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka directions to develop the offensive against the Fortress Belt from the south.
• Russian forces are unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt in 2026 but will likely make some tactical gains at a significant cost.
• US and Ukrainian delegations held a bilateral meeting in Miami, Florida, on March 21.
• Ukrainian forces downed another Russian military helicopter on March 21, marking the second time that Ukrainian forces have downed a helicopter in two days.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Pokrovsk and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk.
• Ukrainian forces struck oil infrastructure and chemical plants in Russia. Russian forces launched 154 drones against Ukraine.

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