ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Ukrainian forces continue their long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets and oil infrastructure, exploiting vulnerabilities in Russian air defenses.
• Russia’s additional revenues from rising oil prices are likely insufficient to fundamentally change the course of Russia’s growing economic issues.
• Senior Russian bankers continue to express worries over economic issues that will continue to mature throughout the 2026 fiscal year, despite increased Russian oil revenues.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced northwest of Orikhiv.
• Russian forces launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 268 long-range drones against Ukraine overnight.

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