ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 16, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• The Group of Seven (G7) reaffirmed its unified support for Ukraine and its interest in re-engaging in peace talks to end the war in Ukraine.
• The United States, Europe, and Ukraine are reportedly in talks to extend US licenses to produce US weapons abroad, but it is unclear where this production would take place.
• Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against Russian energy infrastructure continues to cause gasoline shortages across the country, hindering Russia’s crude oil production and pushing Russia to maximize crude oil exports.  
• Russia appears to be capitalizing on an alleged Ukrainian strike to narratively align Belarus with its recent information operations that aim to justify devastating Russian strikes against Ukraine.
• Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces recently advanced.
• Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign continues to force Russian authorities to restrict airspace across several Russian oblasts. Russian forces launched 119 drones against Ukraine overnight.

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