Latvia Warns of Russian Missile, Drone Provocations Targeting Baltic States and Poland

Russia may be preparing hybrid provocations against the Baltic states or Poland in an effort to pressure NATO countries to reduce support for Ukraine, Latvian intelligence officials told Fox News Digital on Monday, June 23.

According to Fox News Digital, Latvian intelligence believes Moscow is unlikely to launch a conventional military attack against NATO in the near term but could resort to drones, missiles or other hybrid actions designed to intimidate neighboring countries.

“We see indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland – not a conventional war, because Russia is not capable of that right now, but hybrid attacks, such as missiles, drones or other actions designed to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems,” Latvian intelligence said.

Officials said their primary concern is not Russia’s current military capabilities but the possibility that Russian President Vladimir Putin could make decisions based on distorted information provided by state institutions.

“The biggest concern is miscalculation. Russian institutions are telling Putin what he wants to hear, and that creates a dangerous cycle that can lead to foolish and senseless decisions,” Latvian intelligence said.

On May 28, Latvia began installing concrete “dragon’s teeth” anti-tank barriers on its border with Russia, as a part of the Baltic Defense Line agreed by Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. At the same time, NATO is preparing to assign the German-Netherlands Corps, based in Münster, splitting responsibility on the eastern flank with the existing Multinational Corps Northeast in Szczecin.

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Concerns over hybrid threats

The warning follows similar concerns raised by Polish officials, who have described Russia’s hybrid campaign against NATO’s eastern flank as already underway.

Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Marcin Bosacki previously pointed to cyberattacks, drone activity, attacks on critical infrastructure and assassinations as examples of Russian efforts to destabilize NATO countries.

The Baltic states and Poland are NATO members, meaning any significant Russian provocation could test the alliance’s collective defense commitments.

Intelligence points to sanctions pressure

Latvian intelligence also argued that Western sanctions are having a growing impact on Russia’s economy despite public claims from Moscow that restrictions have failed.

“Russia says publicly that sanctions do not matter, but its own internal assessments show that sanctions are biting,” Latvian intelligence told Fox News Digital.

Officials said sanctions are limiting Russia’s financial resources and forcing difficult decisions on military spending, recruitment and support for businesses.

Legal pressure campaign against the West

The assessment coincides with a report by Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB), which said Russia is increasingly using legal mechanisms and international institutions to pressure Western countries and weaken support for Ukraine.

According to the report, Russian officials have studied Iran’s legal challenges against Western sanctions and may seek to adopt similar strategies against Western governments.

The bureau also warned that Moscow is preparing a complaint against the Baltic states at the International Court of Justice, accusing them of discrimination against Russian-speaking populations.

Latvian officials argued that such efforts are intended to build narratives that could later be used to justify pressure campaigns or hybrid operations.

No immediate invasion threat

Despite the warnings, Latvian intelligence said there is currently no direct military threat to Latvia.

“Currently, there are no military threats to Latvia,” officials said.

“We are not concerned about a full-scale invasion right now. Russia would need three to five years, even if the war in Ukraine ended today, to rebuild sufficient capabilities. What worries us now are provocations – drones, missiles and other hybrid attacks.”